2018

Preview/Predictions

All-Star weekend is coming to sunny Los Angeles for the third time in fifteen years and this time commissioner Adam Silver has shaken things up. After last year's game had an egregious lack of defense or any shred of competitiveness, he decided to throw away the classic East vs. West format and allow two captains (leading vote getters LeBron James and Steph Curry) to draft their own squads from a pool of the top 22 players from both conferences. Will LeBron and his team give LA a preview of what's to come next season (let the free agency rumors begin) or will Team Steph prove why the two-time MVP and reigning NBA Champ currently holds the keys to the kingdom? Only time will tell... but first we start with Friday night!

Friday Night (Feb. 16)

Rising Stars Game

The annual contest between first and second year players has found its longterm format in the USA vs. World model. This year's game is bound to be a doozy because I'm LOVING the new rookie class. Studs like Ben Simmons, Jayson Tatum and Dennis Smith Jr. are living up to their hype and plenty of second-year ballers are finally hitting their strides as well.

The trio of Lakers repping the States will be a ton of fun to watch as they play in front of their home crowd. Brandon Ingram is finally playing like he was the second overall pick in 2016, leading his team in scoring with 15.9 ppg and Lonzo Ball (when healthy) is showing why he's a Big Baller. None are more impressive than Kyle Kuzma though, who essentially came out of nowhere and took the Lake Show by storm. The 22-year-old rookie was a late first rounder who won fans' hearts in the summer league and has carried that momentum through regular season play. Kuz is for real and when he isn't busy clowning the Ball family he's getting buckets on a nightly basis.

Those Lakers will be matched up against an imposing group of Sixers consisting of Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, and Dario Saric. Simmons is a 6'10" do-it-all man who's been playing point guard for fun basically (and because Markelle Fultz still has a broken jump shot) while averaging 16.6 ppg 7.8 rpg and 7.2 apg. The Australian first overall pick has been money ever since he got cleared to play and Saric already has experience in the Rising Stars game--putting in a solid 17 and 5 last year.

Embiid is by far the best player in this game. He's been averaging 23 and 11 on a minutes restriction and is finally at the point where he's playing back-to-backs. A lack of true big men on the U.S. team indicates The Process will have his way in the post and one would assume he's a shoo-in for MVP, but his All-Star selection will be what prevents him from going off Friday night. I know that sounds counterintuitive, but history shows that young stars who get selected to the All-Star game in their first or second year never show out at the Rising Stars game (e.g. Anthony Davis in 2014, Blake Griffin in 2011/12, and Yao Ming in 2004). Embiid could be saving his energy for the bigger game on Sunday, so I wouldn't put him as a lock for this.

Nugget's sophomore, Jamal Murray, is the reigning Rising Stars MVP and will return after dropping a game-high 36 points to go along with 11 dimes last year. No one saw that type of performance coming from the Kentucky-bred sharpshooter and that's what makes this game great. Any player can heat up and once teammates see who has the hot hand, he gets fed until he misses. Murray didn't miss much last year, hitting 9 of his 14 attempts from deep. He can easily catch fire again in LA.

What excites me most will be the two Bulls players (Kris Dunn of U.S. Team and Lauri Markkanen of World Team) going head-to-head for the first time. Dunn is having a breakout season in Chicago (13.7 ppg 6.4 apg and 4.6 rpg) after struggling to find his way in Minnesota. His quick handles and slashing abilities will suit him well for this contest and hopefully he won't smash his teeth in again when dunking on a fastbreak. Markkanen has been just as impressive as he continues to break records this season. The seventh overall pick is the youngest player in NBA history to reach 100 3-pointers and tied Dirk Nowitzki for the most threes in a game by a 7-footer (8). The Finnisher was a huge snub for the 3-Point Contest on Saturday but can easily make it rain Friday night. Usually I root for the Bulls to tank, but this time I want them to dominate.

Utah's Donovan Mitchell will be having a huge weekend as he competes in both the Rising Stars Game and dunk contest. He's coming off back-to-back Western Conference Rookie of the Month honors in December and January and has notched 40+ points in two games this season--which hasn't been done by a rookie since Blake Griffin in 2010-11. He's been the go-to guy in Utah and with the ball in his hands he might try to carry the bulk of the scoring for the U.S. team.

Still, I can't see anyone outshining the home team's kid. With Kuzmania running wild in the stands, I got the U.S. team picking up the dub and MVP honors going to Kuz.

My pick to win: U.S. Team

My pick for MVP: Kyle Kuzma

Saturday Night (Feb. 17)

Skills Challenge

Big men have seized the crown ever since the field for this event opened up to frontcourt players. Karl-Anthony Towns (2016) and Kristaps Porzingis (2017) proved that that the PF/C positions have evolved and that bigs can keep up with the guards of this league. Unfortunately the Unicorn had to bow out of the competition after tearing his ACL, so there will be no title defense this year. Instead bigs like Al Horford, Lauri Markkanen, Joel Embiid, and Andre Drummond will attempt to defend the throne, but they have quite the challenge ahead of them.

You can see in the graphic above how the players are matched up tournament style. The guards and bigs duke it out amongst themselves first, then the best guard goes head-to-head with the best big in the final round. Here's how I see it all going down:

Round 1:

Markkanen > Drummond

- Dre is way too slow and missed his sole attempt from beyond the arc this season, so...yeah. Lauri cruises here.

Horford > Embiid

- Normally I would say trust The Process, but Horford is a very skilled passer. Jo-Jo might get hung up on that target.

Williams > Murray

- LouWill was supposed to be an All-Star this year. He dropped 51 on Golden State but still got snubbed multiple times. He will not be taking this event lightly.

Dinwiddie > Hield

- PLEASE do not sleep on Spencer Dinwiddie. The Brooklyn guard has stepped up in big ways this year after DeAngelo Russell and Jeremy Lin got hurt. Dude is clutch and will show it against Hield.

Round 2

Markkanen > Horford

- Lauri is the quickest big in this field and we know he can knock down the trey. Those young legs will run circles around old Al.

Williams > Dinwiddie

- Sorry Spence, but Lou gets the hometown push for this one. He'll be dapping up multiple celebs before and after each run. Extra motivation.

Final Round

Williams > Markkanen

- While I'd love to see Markkanen win it, I gotta give it to LouWill. The skills challenge is all about multitasking, and LouWill famously had two girlfriends at the same time--and they were both cool with it--so of course he can win a simple skills challenge.

My pick to win: Lou Williams

3-Point Contest

I'm liking the field of talent here and digging how unsung names like Wayne Ellington and Tobias Harris have been sprinkled into the mix. Toronto's Kyle Lowry is hoping that the third time will be the charm for him after competing in 2016 and 2017, and Bradley Beal is making his first appearance after became the youngest player in league history to record 700 threes. One of my league's best young players, Devin Booker, will also be lining up from behind the arc and he has the competitive edge that I like in this contest. SLAM magazine just dubbed him "your favorite player's favorite player", so get familiar with him if you're not already.

“I love Devin Booker, man … He’ll talk sh*t, he’ll rough you up. You better watch out for that boy, because he’s nice.

He next. I’m telling you.”

- Kevin Durant

The reigning champ, Eric Gordon, surprisingly has the lowest 3P% in this contest--shooting at just .336%. He stills averages 3 treys per game, but that puts him in the middle of the pack this year. Former champ, Klay Thompson, leads the field in both percentage (.448%) and 3-pointers made per game (3.2). He's the clear-cut favorite, but something tells me Paul George will be the one giving him the most trouble. PG-13 also knocks down 3.2 threes per game and his percentage isn't far behind (.426%). The Thunder swingman is due for his All-Star moment and I got him hoisting the trophy this time around.

My pick to win: Paul George

Slam Dunk Contest

Victor Oladipo is the only participant with experience in this contest. He put on a solid showing in 2015 when he eked out a 540 dunk but ultimately fell as the runner-up to the nearly impossible to beat Zach LaVine. Vic has been casually pulling off in-game 360's and even won Dunk of the Year in 2017, but the fact that he's been here before makes me nervous that he's already emptied his bag of tricks. Original dunks are hard to come by and Oladipo may have already revealed all there is to see. Still, Vic seems like the type of guy who doesn't get rattled--and making sure you complete your dunks on the first or second attempt is half the battle--so he still has a good shot.

Larry Nance Jr. is an exciting addition and his appearance has been years in the making. Not only has the Wyoming product been flushing poster dunks since he entered the league, but his father Larry Nance Sr. won the inaugural NBA dunk contest in 1984. He definitely has the pedigree to come out on top but his dunking style doesn't indicate that he'll bode well for this contest. Nance's Statue of Liberty dunks look awesome when he's yamming on defenders, but in-game dunkers usually don't impress on All-Star Saturday night. A lot of you probably forget that Giannis Antetokounmpo was once in the dunk contest or that DeAndre Jordan jumped over DJ Khaled's turntables last year. That's because dudes who are known for dunking on other dudes don't look as cool when there isn't a dude to dunk on. Make sense? And I should note that dunking on somebody is much different than dunking over someone. Tracy McGrady dunked on Shawn Bradley. Glenn Robinson III dunked over Paul George. And if you watched that last clip and are thinking, "well, GRIII did win last year on that dunk" know that he stole it from John Wall in 2014 and both those dunk contests were JOKES.

Dennis Smith Jr. is a freak athlete with a ton of upside. He made headlines before the season when he recorded a 48-inch vertical jump during a pre-draft workout. Just to give you some perspective, in their respective primes Vince Carter had a vert of 43", LeBron 44", and Kobe 38". Wow. You know who else got up to 48"? Michael Jordan and Wilt Chamberlain. That puts him in some elite company and also gives him plenty of airtime to work with. I'm not saying Smith is Jordan, but if he can soar like Mike, anything is possible. The Mav's rookie is the wildcard Saturday night and I can't wait to see what he's got up his sleeve.

Dunk legend Aaron Gordon was the clear favorite (despite completely botching all his dunks last year) until injury forced him out of this year's contest. Now all heads are turning to Jazz's rookie Donovan Mitchell who has been called up to take his place. A lot of fans were up in arms when Mitchell wasn't originally selected--and rightfully so. Spida has been cocking back tomahawks like Russell Westbrook and finishing lobs like Clint Capela. He's put together a very impressive dunktape in only half a season and is the new favorite heading into Saturday. I got Mitchell for this one.

My pick to win: Donovan Mitchell

Sunday Night (Feb. 18)

All-Star Game

As I mentioned earlier, the All-Star game shed it's traditional East vs. West format and allowed leading vote getters LeBron James and Steph Curry to draft their own teams. I love this idea, but I (and every other NBA fan) had one issue about this: THEY DIDN'T SHOW THE DRAFT.

Fans were left in the dark during draft time, but after the rosters were revealed I was able to figure out a few things:

1. Kevin Durant was the #1 pick

Judging by the rest of the rosters, you can tell LeBron and Steph wanted to keep their teammates together. That's why Kevin Love got picked by Team LeBron and Klay and Draymond are on Team Steph. Steph would have taken Durant if he could, but LeBron was the overall leading vote getter so he had first dibs. The fact that Durant isn't on Team Steph indicates LeBron snatched him with the very first pick. No surprise there.

2. LeBron wanted Kyrie Irving

The main reason we wanted the draft to be televised was so we could see how LeBron would handle Kyrie on his draft board. A lot of people thought LeBron would be petty and avoid him--allowing the Celtics guard fall to Curry for the last pick (which would have been a steal)--but since we don't see Kyrie's name on Team Steph, that means LeBron must've willingly selected him. Awwww. Too bad his attempt to get the band back together failed when Kevin Love broke his hand a week later.

3. Steph is an idiot

LeBron's starting lineup was wayyyy better than Steph's when rosters were first released. Look at these matchups:

DeMarcus Cousins vs. Joel Embiid

Anthony Davis vs. Giannis Antetokoumpo

Kevin Durant vs. DeMar DeRozan

LeBron James vs. James Harden

Kyrie Irving vs. Steph Curry

Curry makes it look like he gave LeBron the first four picks straight up. LeBron's team wins almost all those matchups easily--or at least they would have until things started falling apart.

All-Stars starting dropping like flies after the draft and all of them were on Team LeBron. Reserves have been called up, but swapping DeMarcus Cousins, Kevin Love, John Wall, and Kristaps Porzingis for Paul George, Andre Drummond, Goran Dragic, and Kemba Walker is a major downgrade to LeBron's roster. Teammate pairings like Cousins and Davis, Wall and Beal, and James and Love have been broken up while the trio of Golden State players and the duos of DeRozan and Lowry and Butler and Towns are starting to look stronger on Team Steph.

Another glaring flaw in Team LeBron stems from their captain himself. The Cavs have had major issues with team chemistry this season and their squad of current/former All-Stars couldn't co-exist--leading to a total blowup and roster overhaul before the trade deadline last week. Chemistry is important for any team (even in All-Star games) and if LeBron couldn't effectively lead his team of Cavaliers then he probably won't be able to manage a team full of players with even bigger egos. Curry leads his Warriors superteam just fine, so I got Team Steph for this one.

Expect Giannis Antetokounmpo to have a breakout game for Team Steph as he starts for the second consecutive year. He'll rack up most of his points on fast breaks and be there to close out to game when it gets competitive in the fourth quarter again. The Greek Freak tends to step up in bright light games, and the Staples Center on All-Star Sunday night is as bright as it gets.

My pick to win: Team Steph

My pick for MVP: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Those are my picks, now please tell me yours! Go to the Vote page to select who you think will win. Voting will get you entered into the People's Picks page where winners receive prizes. What are the prizes you ask? Win to find out!

You can also join the discussion by explaining your picks below (which is way more fun). I love hearing other people's takes and expanding this blog with your analysis. Let the comments begin!